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BLOGThe Bird's Eye View

Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking 

We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.

Blog hero image

BLOGThe Bird's Eye View

Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking 

We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.

Equities

The Long Road to AI-Driven Productivity

Artificial intelligence (AI) is widely expected to transform productivity and reshape labor markets. While we have already begun to see measurable productivity gains in certain areas, we believe that large-scale impacts may take longer to come to fruition.

Companies in Japan have already been using AI to help address workforce shortages amid a labor-constrained economy. The clearest productivity gains can be found in software engineering, where AI-assisted coding has already improved efficiency and boosted productivity. Beyond software development, however, most companies are still testing AI applications, making it difficult to identify measurable improvements in labor productivity or business performance.

This does not necessarily mean AI is overhyped, but rather that near-term expectations may be running ahead of reality. History suggests that the adoption of general-purpose technologies is a gradual process. New technologies are initially used to improve existing tasks by making them slightly faster or more efficient, and the greatest productivity gains typically occur later, when businesses redesign workflows and develop entirely new applications. For example, the personal computer’s transformative impact only emerged after organizations recognized its potential to be more than an advanced calculator or typewriter and reimagined how work could be performed.

 

AI’s near-term expectations may be running ahead of reality.

While current expectations for AI may exceed its real-world impact in the near term, this mismatch is not unusual for groundbreaking technologies. History has repeatedly shown that society tends to overestimate the short-term effects of innovation while underestimating its long-term influence. AI may follow this familiar pattern, with its most significant economic and productivity benefits unfolding over the coming decades rather than the next few years.

The information contained in this material is provided by First Eagle Investment Management, LLC (“FEIM”) and its global subsidiaries (collectively, “First Eagle”). FEIM is an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

This material is for informational purposes only and reflects prevailing conditions and the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of publication, all of which are subject to change. This material should not be relied upon as investment advice; it does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment; and it is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. This material is not being provided in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to recommend any investment policy or investment strategy or consider the specific objectives or circumstances of any investor. We consider the information in this material to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete or should be relied upon as the sole source of appropriateness for investment.

Prospective investors should inform themselves and consult with an investment, tax or legal professional as to any applicable legal requirements, taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile that may be relevant prior to investing.

THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.

All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

A principal risk of investing in value stocks is that the price of the security may not approach its anticipated value or may decline in value. “Value” investments, as a category, or entire industries or sectors associated with such investments, may lose favor with investors as compared to those that are more “growth” oriented.

Investments that are concentrated in a specific industry or sector may be subject to a higher degree of risk than funds whose investments are diversified and may not be suitable for all investors.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund, strategy or account managed or serviced by First Eagle, and there is no guarantee that investors will experience the type of performance reflected. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this material will be realized. There is no guarantee that any historical trend referenced herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any particular security and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Availability of the products or services described may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This material may not be distributed, published or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

United Kingdom
Napier Park Global Capital Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 541427) in the United Kingdom.

Middle East
This material is for information purposes only and has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by any regulator located in the Middle East. It does not constitute or form part of any marketing initiative, any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe to or purchase, any products, strategies or other services, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract resulting therefrom. In the event that the recipient of this material wishes to receive further information regarding any products, strategies or other services, it shall specifically request the same in writing from an authorized financial adviser.

Canada 
Pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is informing you that: (i) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration under National Instrument 31-103;  (ii) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC’s jurisdiction of residence is New York, USA; (iii) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. because it is a resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada.

FEF Distributors, LLC (“FEFD”) (SIPC), a limited purpose broker-dealer, distributes certain First Eagle products. FEFD does not provide services to any investor but rather provides services to its First Eagle affiliates. As such, when FEFD presents a fund, strategy or other product to a prospective investor, FEFD and its representatives do not determine whether an investment in the fund, strategy or other product is in the best interests of, or is otherwise beneficial or suitable for, the investor. No statement by FEFD should be construed as a recommendation. Investors should exercise their own judgment and/or consult with a financial professional to determine whether it is advisable for the investor to invest in any First Eagle fund, strategy or product.

First Eagle Investments is the brand name for First Eagle Investment Management, LLC and its subsidiary investment advisers.

© 2026 First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

    Real Assets

    Gold Is Still Shining After the Sell-Off

    Max Belmont, CFA

    Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst

    After surging to a new all-time nominal high in January, the gold price consolidated in February and sold off following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. Since that time, the positive inflection in job openings and the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance has pushed up expectations for short-term real interest rates and prompted a derating in gold, which is down nearly 8% year-to-date.1

    As a result, gold has moved closer to its long-term geometric average relative to the stock of US Treasuries, down from its premium valuation in January and February. While higher interest rates may be supporting the US dollar, we also note that higher rates undermine the fiscal viability of servicing government debt as the stock of debt rolls into higher rates. In our view, the valuation of gold appears more compelling at current levels, particularly given the confluence of a generationally high stock of debt to GDP, persistent primary deficits, aging demographics in the US and growing defense spending needs.2

    In comparison, gold was closer to its long-term geometric average relative to the S&P 500 Index earlier this year and is now below its historical valuation relative to equities.3 Low risk aversions in both equity and credit markets are supporting late-cycle spending and exuberance, as evidenced by the successful initial public offering of SpaceX and recent rally in semiconductor stocks.4 Should markets encounter an unexpected crisis, this may support a positive drift to the value of gold.

    We continue to believe gold is best suited as a strategic allocation against adverse events, not as a tactical trade. In our view, its long-term fundamental drivers—persistent geopolitical turmoil and troubling government debt dynamics among them—currently remain intact, as does the case for strategic exposure to a potential hedge like gold.

    Gold Still Shining Blog Chart

    1 Source: Bloomberg; data as of June 25, 2026.
    2 Source: Bloomberg; data as of June 25, 2026.
    3 Source: Bloomberg and First Eagle Investments; data as of May 31, 2026.
    4 Source: Bloomberg; data as of June 25, 2026.

    The information contained in this material is provided by First Eagle Investment Management, LLC (“FEIM”) and its global subsidiaries (collectively, “First Eagle”). FEIM is an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

    This material is for informational purposes only and reflects prevailing conditions and the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of publication, all of which are subject to change. This material should not be relied upon as investment advice; it does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment; and it is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. This material is not being provided in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to recommend any investment policy or investment strategy or consider the specific objectives or circumstances of any investor. We consider the information in this material to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete or should be relied upon as the sole source of appropriateness for investment.

    Prospective investors should inform themselves and consult with an investment, tax or legal professional as to any applicable legal requirements, taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile that may be relevant prior to investing.

    THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.

    All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

    S&P 500 Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of 500 of the top companies in the leading industries of the US economy and is widely recognized as a proxy for the US market as a whole. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

    Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees or other operating expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index.

    Investment in gold and gold-related investments present certain risks, including political and economic risks affecting the price of gold and other precious metals like changes in US or foreign tax, currency or mining laws, increased environmental costs, international monetary and political policies, economic conditions within an individual country, trade imbalances and trade or currency restrictions between countries. The price of gold, in turn, is likely to affect the market prices of securities of companies mining or processing gold and, accordingly, the value of investments in such securities may also be affected. Gold-related investments as a group have not performed as well as the stock market in general during periods when the US dollar is strong, inflation is low and general economic conditions are stable. In addition, returns on gold-related investments have traditionally been more volatile than investments in broader equity or debt markets. Investment in gold and gold-related investments may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other assets and types of companies.

    Strategies whose investments are concentrated in a specific industry or sector may be subject to a higher degree of risk than funds whose investments are diversified and may not be suitable for all investors.

    The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund, strategy or account managed or serviced by First Eagle, and there is no guarantee that investors will experience the type of performance reflected. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this material will be realized. There is no guarantee that any historical trend referenced herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any particular security and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

    Availability of the products or services described may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This material may not be distributed, published or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

    United Kingdom

    Napier Park Global Capital Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 541427) in the United Kingdom.

    Middle East

    This material is for information purposes only and has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by any regulator located in the Middle East. It does not constitute or form part of any marketing initiative, any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe to or purchase, any products, strategies or other services, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract resulting therefrom. In the event that the recipient of this material wishes to receive further information regarding any products, strategies or other services, it shall specifically request the same in writing from an authorized financial adviser.

    Canada

    Pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is informing you that: (i) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration under National Instrument 31-103;  (ii) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC’s jurisdiction of residence is New York, USA; (iii) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. because it is a resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada.

    FEF Distributors, LLC (“FEFD”) (SIPC), a limited purpose broker-dealer, distributes certain First Eagle products. FEFD does not provide services to any investor but rather provides services to its First Eagle affiliates. As such, when FEFD presents a fund, strategy or other product to a prospective investor, FEFD and its representatives do not determine whether an investment in the fund, strategy or other product is in the best interests of, or is otherwise beneficial or suitable for, the investor. No statement by FEFD should be construed as a recommendation. Investors should exercise their own judgment and/or consult with a financial professional to determine whether it is advisable for the investor to invest in any First Eagle fund, strategy or product.

    First Eagle Investments is the brand name for First Eagle Investment Management, LLC and its subsidiary investment advisers.

    © 2026 First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

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