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Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking 

We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.

Blog hero image

BLOGThe Bird's Eye View

Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking 

We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.

Equities

Farewell Powell, Welcome Dissent

Idanna Appio Headshot
Idanna Appio, PhD

Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst

While central bank policy remained unchanged at Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair of the Federal Open Market Committee on April 29, it drew dissents from four of the 12 voting members—the most since 1992. Three regional Fed presidents approved of the decision to hold rates steady but wanted to remove language they believe suggested an easing bias. Governor Stephen Miran, as usual, called for a rate cut.1

With the economy facing stagflationary pressures from the Iran war, tariffs and immigration policy, Powell hands over the reins of the central bank at a particularly challenging time.

 

Powell hands over the reins of the central bank at a particularly challenging time.

His successor Kevin Warsh, though widely viewed as a mainstream pick for the job, raised eyebrows during his recent hearings before Senate Banking Committee when he testified about his desire to promote “regime change” at the Fed. Details on his objectives were scarce, however, and many are contradictory. My expectation is that any operational changes under Warsh, whose term begins May 15, are likely to be gradual.

In a noteworthy break from historical precedent, Powell announced that he would stay on the Fed board as a governor when his term as chair ends. While chairs tend to resign in order to avoid overshadowing their replacements, Powell stated the he will leave the board only when the investigation into his handling of the Fed headquarters’ renovation, which now sits with the Fed’s inspector general, is “well and truly over, with finality and transparency.”2 I would not be surprised if Powell remained though year end—i.e., past the midterm elections.

1 Source: The Wall Street Journal; data as of April 30, 2026.
2 Source: Federal Reserve; data as of April 29, 2026.

The information contained in this material is provided by First Eagle Investment Management, LLC (“FEIM”) and its global subsidiaries (collectively, “First Eagle”). FEIM is an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

This material is for informational purposes only and reflects prevailing conditions and the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of publication, all of which are subject to change. This material should not be relied upon as investment advice; it does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment; and it is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. This material is not being provided in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to recommend any investment policy or investment strategy or consider the specific objectives or circumstances of any investor. We consider the information in this material to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete or should be relied upon as the sole source of appropriateness for investment.

Prospective investors should inform themselves and consult with an investment, tax or legal professional as to any applicable legal requirements, taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile that may be relevant prior to investing.

THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.

All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund, strategy or account managed or serviced by First Eagle, and there is no guarantee that investors will experience the type of performance reflected. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this material will be realized. There is no guarantee that any historical trend referenced herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any particular security and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

Availability of the products or services described may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This material may not be distributed, published or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

United Kingdom
Napier Park Global Capital Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 541427) in the United Kingdom.

Middle East
This material is for information purposes only and has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by any regulator located in the Middle East. It does not constitute or form part of any marketing initiative, any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe to or purchase, any products, strategies or other services, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract resulting therefrom. In the event that the recipient of this material wishes to receive further information regarding any products, strategies or other services, it shall specifically request the same in writing from an authorized financial adviser.

Canada 
Pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is informing you that: (i) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration under National Instrument 31-103;  (ii) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC’s jurisdiction of residence is New York, USA; (iii) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. because it is a resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada.

FEF Distributors, LLC (“FEFD”) (SIPC), a limited purpose broker-dealer, distributes certain First Eagle products. FEFD does not provide services to any investor but rather provides services to its First Eagle affiliates. As such, when FEFD presents a fund, strategy or other product to a prospective investor, FEFD and its representatives do not determine whether an investment in the fund, strategy or other product is in the best interests of, or is otherwise beneficial or suitable for, the investor. No statement by FEFD should be construed as a recommendation. Investors should exercise their own judgment and/or consult with a financial professional to determine whether it is advisable for the investor to invest in any First Eagle fund, strategy or product.

First Eagle Investments is the brand name for First Eagle Investment Management, LLC and its subsidiary investment advisers.

© 2026 First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

    Alternatives

    A Case for Continued Caution in Credit

    Following a strong 2025 for credit markets broadly, mounting headwinds in early 2026 prompted a sharp increase in volatility and a repricing of risk. Conditions during the first quarter were reminiscent of second quarter 2025, with concerns about the potential disruption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the war with Iran replacing tariffs as the primary headwinds and sources of uncertainty.

    While spending and earnings growth appear to be resilient in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty and spiking energy prices—perhaps due in part to outsized tax refunds paid out this year1—we remain wary of the K-shaped economy in which activity increasingly becomes dependent upon upper-income households, as well as tech-oriented businesses. In corporates, we see meaningful bifurcation between higher and lower quality names and a similar story in the consumer segment where strain exists amongst the lower-income consumers, such as the growing use of credit cards to cover essential expenses and troublingly high auto loan and lease delinquency rates.2, 3

     

    We continue to see signs of strain among lower-income consumers and lower-quality credits.

    We believe caution remains appropriate. By prompting what appears to be the largest-ever physical supply disruption to world oil markets, the war with Iran has sent a stagflationary impulse to the global economy that, the longer it persists, is likely to weigh on economic growth while adding to inflationary pressures facing consumers. And while spreads in many credit assets are wider than where they began the year, spread compensation remains compressed on a historical basis, particularly for the good-quality credits we seek in today’s highly uncertain environment.4

    1 Source: Internal Revenue Service; data as of April 17, 2026.
    2 Federal Reserve; data as of April 7, 2026. 
    3 Source: Morgan Stanley Research; data as of January 7, 2026 (most recent available).
    4 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; data as of May 4, 2026.

    The information contained in this material is provided by First Eagle Investment Management, LLC (“FEIM”) and its global subsidiaries (collectively, “First Eagle”). FEIM is an investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training.

    This material is for informational purposes only and reflects prevailing conditions and the judgment of the author(s) as of the date of publication, all of which are subject to change. This material should not be relied upon as investment advice; it does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell a security or other investment; and it is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment. This material is not being provided in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to recommend any investment policy or investment strategy or consider the specific objectives or circumstances of any investor. We consider the information in this material to be accurate, but we do not represent that it is complete or should be relied upon as the sole source of appropriateness for investment.

    Prospective investors should inform themselves and consult with an investment, tax or legal professional as to any applicable legal requirements, taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile that may be relevant prior to investing.

    THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.

    All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

    Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.

    Alternative Investment Risks

    Alternative investments can be speculative and are not suitable for all investors. Investing in alternative investments is only intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks associated with such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. Certain of these risks include:

    • Loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment;
    • Lack of liquidity in that there may be no secondary market or interest in the strategy and none is expected to develop;
    • Volatility of returns;
    • Interest rate risk;
    • Restrictions on transferring interests in a private investment strategy;
    • Potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration within one or more sectors, industries, countries or regions;
    • Absence of information regarding valuations and pricing;
    • Complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting;
    • Less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds;
    • Use of leverage, which magnifies the potential for gain or loss on amounts invested and is generally considered a speculative investment technique and increases the risks associated with investing in the strategy;
    • Carried interest, which may cause the strategy to make more speculative, higher risk investments than would be the case in absence of such arrangements; and
    • Below investment grade loans, which may default and adversely affect returns.

    A credit rating is an assessment provided by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) of credit worthiness of an issuer with respect to debt obligations, including specific securities, money market instruments, or other bonds. Ratings are measured on a scale that generally ranges from AAA (highest) to D (lowest); ratings are subject to change without notice. Not Rated (NR) indicates that the debtor was not rated and should not be interpreted as indicating low quality.

    Deal quality refers to an assessment of the degree to which a loan’s characteristics—including covenant structures, use of proceeds, amount of leverage and the attachment point within the capital structure—benefits lenders.

    The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund, strategy or account managed or serviced by First Eagle, and there is no guarantee that investors will experience the type of performance reflected. There is no guarantee that any market forecast set forth in this material will be realized. There is no guarantee that any historical trend referenced herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any particular security and should not be relied upon as investment advice.

    Availability of the products or services described may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This material may not be distributed, published or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

    United Kingdom

    Napier Park Global Capital Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 541427) in the United Kingdom.

    Middle East

    This material is for information purposes only and has not been, and will not be, registered with or reviewed or approved by any regulator located in the Middle East. It does not constitute or form part of any marketing initiative, any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe to or purchase, any products, strategies or other services, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract resulting therefrom. In the event that the recipient of this material wishes to receive further information regarding any products, strategies or other services, it shall specifically request the same in writing from an authorized financial adviser.

    Canada

    Pursuant to the international adviser registration exemption in National Instrument 31-103, First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is informing you that: (i) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. is not registered in Canada and is advising you in reliance upon an exemption from the adviser registration under National Instrument 31-103;  (ii) First Eagle Investment Management, LLC’s jurisdiction of residence is New York, USA; (iii) there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. because it is a resident outside of Canada and all or substantially all of its assets may be situated outside of Canada.

    FEF Distributors, LLC (“FEFD”) (SIPC), a limited purpose broker-dealer, distributes certain First Eagle products. FEFD does not provide services to any investor but rather provides services to its First Eagle affiliates. As such, when FEFD presents a fund, strategy or other product to a prospective investor, FEFD and its representatives do not determine whether an investment in the fund, strategy or other product is in the best interests of, or is otherwise beneficial or suitable for, the investor. No statement by FEFD should be construed as a recommendation. Investors should exercise their own judgment and/or consult with a financial professional to determine whether it is advisable for the investor to invest in any First Eagle fund, strategy or product.

    First Eagle Investments is the brand name for First Eagle Investment Management, LLC and its subsidiary investment advisers.

    First Eagle Alternative Credit and Napier Park are brand names for the two subsidiary investment advisers engaged in the alternative credit business.

    © 2026 First Eagle Investment Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

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