Macro & Market Views

Welcome to Reflections 2025-2026

Welcome to Reflections 2025-2026

It’s been said that it takes years to become an overnight success. That’s what 2025 felt like at First Eagle.

We have a storied history of taking positions that contrast with prevailing market sentiment, sometimes over long periods of time. For example, the past few years have seen our investment teams express such views as the relative attractiveness of non-US stocks, the ongoing appeal of gold as a potential hedge and mounting concerns about the valuation of the US dollar. These perspectives were often inconsistent with post-pandemic market narratives, leading many to ask if our disciplined, bottom-up approach to investing was “dead.” Markets in 2025 illustrated why fundamentals and conviction matter.

Gold, for example, set more than 50 record nominal highs year-to-date through November as it surged about 60%.1 Meanwhile, a weakening dollar helped support the outperformance of non-US stocks relative to US names; the MSCI World ex USA Index advanced 25.0% for the first 11 months of 2025 while the S&P 500 Index gained 17.8%—to the benefit of clients in our Global Value strategies. Were this pattern to hold, 2025 would represent the first year since 2017 that non-US stocks have outperformed; given the long period of non-US underperformance, however, the price ratio of the S&P 500 to the MSCI World ex USA, at 2.4, remains close to generational highs and well above the long-term average of 0.9.2 

The fundamentals underpinning these trends remain in place. There is logic to owning real assets like gold and diversifying outside the US amid rich domestic valuations and massive sovereign indebtedness. Persistent deficit spending for much of the twenty-first century has supported nominal drift in the US economy, to the benefit—and likely dependence—of corporate America. Over time, it also likely skewed investor risk perception.  

It is only recently that price action in the US Treasury market has suggested investor risk perception may be changing. While the federal funds target has been cut by 175 basis points since September 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast with its historical tendency, has increased by about 50 basis points.3 The steepening yield curve in the current loosening cycle may imply the bond market is asking important questions about the impact of the country’s fiscal imbalances on its economic trajectory—a fundamental reckoning that can be postponed but not permanently ignored.

 

I attribute our strong investment performance in 2025 largely to the patience and temperament of our investors. 

At First Eagle, we emphasize resilient capital in pursuit of long-term returns rather than chasing short-term trends. I attribute our strong investment performance in 2025 largely to the patience and temperament of our investors—and also our collective view of how these characteristics translate into action. Patience is not stasis, and temperament is not stoicism. Rather, these qualities drive us to continually evaluate investment opportunities with tremendous discipline, sifting the signal from the noise and methodically reallocating capital as conditions evolve. 

Throughout this edition of Reflections you will read about how our investment teams took advantage of market dynamics during the year to fine-tune their portfolios for long-term success—whether it was maintaining our commitment to gold as a potential hedge in certain portfolios, remaining steadfast in the face of a lengthy period of small cap underperformance, leveraging opportunities that emerged alongside a rebound in municipal bond supply, or acknowledging warning signs in credit markets by positioning portfolios conservatively.

 

Organizationally, 2025 was a significant year for First Eagle. 

Organizationally, 2025 was a significant year for First Eagle. In August, private equity funds managed by Genstar Capital acquired a majority stake in First Eagle from Blackstone and Corsair. First Eagle remains private and independent, and Genstar is fully supportive of our mission to serve clients and our vision to thoughtfully expand our range of high-quality differentiated investment offerings over time. To that end, First Eagle in December signed a definitive agreement to acquire Diamond Hill Investment Group, a publicly traded boutique investment manager headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, with $32.4 billion of assets under management and advisement.4

We have made no secret of our goal as an organization: namely, to create the most resilient, well-regarded and successful active investment firm in the industry. A core element of this effort is to selectively diversify our investment platform by introducing new teams, strategies and vehicles that meet the needs of our clients globally in what is an ever-changing and ever-challenging environment. We are proud to have continued to deliver the performance our clients expect and to have made significant progress on expanding our range of capabilities. On behalf of my colleagues and the firm, I thank you for your ongoing support.   

 

Sincerely,

Mehdi signature

Mehdi Mahmud
President and Chief Executive Officer,
First Eagle Investments
December 2025 


1. Source: World Gold Council; data as of November 30, 2025.
2. Source: Bloomberg; data as of November 30, 2025.
3. Source: Bloomberg; data as of December 11, 2025.
4. As of September 30, 2025.


The opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the firm. These materials are provided for informational purposes only. These opinions are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Any statistics contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy of this information cannot be guaranteed. The views expressed herein may change at any time subsequent to the date of issue hereof. The information provided is not to be construed as a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any fund or security.

The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this material, and the company assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein, except as required to be disclosed by law.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Risk Disclosures 

All investments involve the risk of loss of principal.

A principal risk of investing in value stocks is that the price of the security may not approach its anticipated value or may decline in value. “Value” investments, as a category, or entire industries or sectors associated with such investments, may lose favor with investors as compared to those that are more “growth” oriented.

There are risks associated with investing in securities of foreign countries, such as erratic market conditions, economic and political instability and fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

Investment in gold and gold-related investments present certain risks, including political and economic risks affecting the price of gold and other precious metals like changes in US or foreign tax, currency or mining laws, increased environmental costs, international monetary and political policies, economic conditions within an individual country, trade imbalances and trade or currency restrictions between countries. The price of gold, in turn, is likely to affect the market prices of securities of companies mining or processing gold and, accordingly, the value of investments in such securities may also be affected. Gold-related investments as a group have not performed as well as the stock market in general during periods when the US dollar is strong, inflation is low and general economic conditions are stable. In addition, returns on gold related investments have traditionally been more volatile than investments in broader equity or debt markets. Investment in gold and gold related investments may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other assets and types of companies.

Municipal bonds are subject to credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk and call risk. However, the obligations of some municipal issuers may not be enforceable through the exercise of traditional creditors’ rights. The reorganization under federal bankruptcy laws of a municipal bond issuer may result in the bonds being cancelled without payment or repaid only in part, or in delays in collecting principal and interest.

The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting or tax advice. Any tax information presented is not intended to constitute an analysis of all tax considerations.

The value and liquidity of portfolio holdings may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the US or abroad. During periods of market volatility, the value of individual securities and other investments at times may decline significantly and rapidly. The securities of small and micro-size companies can be more volatile in price than those of larger companies and may be more difficult or expensive to trade.

Specific investments described herein do not represent all investment decisions made by First Eagle. The reader should not assume that investment decisions identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Specific investment advice references provided herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not necessarily representative of investments that will be made in the future.

Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.

Alternative investments can be speculative and are not suitable for all investors. Investing in alternative investments is only intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks associated with such an investment. Investors should carefully review and consider potential risks before investing. Certain of these risks include: 

• Loss of all or a substantial portion of the investment; 
• Lack of liquidity in that there may be no secondary market or interest in the strategy and none is expected to develop; 
• Volatility of returns;
• Interest rate risk;
• Restrictions on transferring interests in a private investment strategy; 
• Potential lack of diversification and resulting higher risk due to concentration within one or more sectors, industries, countries or regions; 
• Absence of information regarding valuations and pricing; 
• Complex tax structures and delays in tax reporting; 
• Less regulation and higher fees than mutual funds; 
• Use of leverage, which magnifies the potential for gain or loss on amounts invested and is generally considered a speculative investment technique and increases the risks associated with investing in the strategy; 
• Carried interest, which may cause the strategy to make more speculative, higher risk investments than would be the case in absence of such arrangements; and 
• Below-investment-grade loans, which may default and adversely affect returns. 

10-year Treasury note is a debt obligation of the US government with a maturity of 10 years upon issuance.

AMT bonds are municipal securities whose interest income is subject to federal taxation if the alternative minimum tax applies to the investor.

Asset-backed securities (ABSs) are debt securities whose payments of principal and interest are backed by the cash flow generated by pools of income-producing credit assets.

Asset-based lending (ABL) is corporate borrowing supported by specific assets of the borrower rather than its cash flows.

Beta is a measure of an investment's price volatility relative to that of the overall market.

Business development companies (BDCs) are investment vehicles that provide capital primarily to middle market businesses.

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are financial instruments collateralized by a pool of corporate loans.

Collective investment trusts (CITs) are bank-administered trusts that hold commingled assets.

Convexity measures the sensitivity of a bond’s duration to changes in its yield.

Credit derivatives are financial contracts that transfer credit risk from one party to another in exchange for a fee.

A credit rating is an assessment provided by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) of credit worthiness of an issuer with respect to debt obligations, including specific securities, money market instruments, or other bonds. Ratings are measured on a scale that generally ranges from AAA (highest) to D (lowest); ratings are subject to change without notice. Not Rated (NR) indicates that the debtor was not rated and should not be interpreted as indicating low quality.

Dry powder refers cash reserves kept on hand by a company or investment fund in anticipation of attractive investment opportunities.

Duration measures the sensitivity of a bond price to changes in its yield.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are listed investment vehicles that seek to provide exposure to a benchmark, index or actively managed strategy.

Federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis.

General obligation (GO) bonds are municipal securities whose payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer and by extension its ability to tax its residents.

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of all economic output in goods and services for an economy.

Interval funds are pooled investment vehicle that offer investors periodic liquidity at a designated interval.

Magnificent Seven is widely used in the financial media and elsewhere to refer to seven very large US technology-related stocks—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

Moody's Investors Service is a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) that assesses the creditworthiness of an issuer with respect to debt obligations, including specific securities, money market instruments or other bonds. Ratings are measured on a scale that generally ranges from Aaa (highest) to RD (lowest); ratings are subject to change without notice.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) are debt securities whose payments of principal and interest are backed by the cash flow generated by pools of mortgage loans.

Payment-in-kind (PIK) is a financing feature in which the borrower/issuer is allowed to roll accrued interest into the loan/bond principal rather than paying cash.

Private placements are non-public offerings of securities sold directly to investors.

Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBSs) are debt securities whose payments of principal and interest are backed by the cash flow generated by pools of residential mortgage loans.

Revenue bonds are municipal securities backed by revenues from a specific project or source, such as highway tolls or lease fees.

Separately managed accounts (SMAs) are investment accounts owned by a single investor and managed by a professional investment firm.

Sovereign debt is issued by a country's government as a way to borrow capital.

Structured credit is a financial instrument that pools together groups of similar, income-generating assets.

Tax-exempt bonds are municipal securities whose interest is exempt from federal—and sometime state and local—tax for its investors.

US Treasury securities are debt instruments backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.

A yield curve is a graphical representation of interest rates on debt of equal credit quality across a range of maturities.

Yield to worst is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond that operates within the terms of its contract without defaulting.

Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees or other operating expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index.

Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of the US municipal tax-exempt investment grade bond market. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

Consumer price index (CPI) (Price) measures inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses by capturing the average change over time in the prices paid for a representative basket of consumer goods and services. A price-return index only measures price changes.

ICE US Dollar Index is a geometrically averaged calculation of six currencies weighted against the US dollar maintained by ICE Futures US.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of US Treasury bonds with remaining maturities of more than 20 years.

MSCI EAFE Index (Net) measures the performance of large and midcap equities across developed markets countries around the world excluding the US and Canada. A net-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income net of withholding taxes.

MSCI World ex USA Index (Net) measures the performance of large and midcap equities across developed markets and emerging markets excluding the US and covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted capitalization in each country. A net-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income net of withholding taxes.

Russell 2000® Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of the small cap segment of the US equity universe. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

Russell 3000® Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of the 3000 largest US companies based on market capitalization and is designed to represent approximately 98% of the investable US equity market. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

S&P 500 Index (Gross/Total) measures the performance of 500 of the top companies in the leading industries of the US economy and is widely recognized as a proxy for the US market as a whole. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

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