Macro & Market Views

Alternative Credit Review: 1Q26

Alternative Credit Review: 1Q26

A Note on Private Credit: Not All Loans Are Created Equal

The potentially disruptive impact of artificial intelligence has seeped into credit markets, raising questions about the quality and stability of private credit portfolios and their ability to meet investor redemptions. Recall that private credit encompasses a wide array of assets, with the individual characteristics of each—maturity, coupon rate and ability to return principal—impacting the manager’s ability to manage liquidity and performance.

The most attractive direct loans in the lower middle market, for example, may be to private equity-sponsored companies with stable, cash-generative business models. Terms on these loans typically include floating rates, structural protections—including liquidity requirements—and strong sponsor relationships that trigger preemptive discussion and remediation—including cash infusions—to retain interest and principal repayment/ loan integrity.

RTLs are backed by hard assets whose values are transparent and subject to frequent validation through the sale of similar properties limiting the potential for an abrupt markdown. With typical maturities of about one year—far shorter than the usual five-year maturity of a traditional cash flow corporate loan—RTLs typically return principal quickly to create recurring organic liquidity that can support investor redemptions and preclude active liquidity management, including the forced sale of assets. Furthermore, the shorter lending period can provide visibility into current market conditions and factors that could potentially impair the performance of an illiquid asset, informing a potential decision to redeploy assets in times of stress.

1. Source: PitchBook | LCD; data as of March 31, 2026.
2. Source: Bloomberg; data as of March 31, 2026.
3. Source: SIFMA; data as of March 31, 2026.
4,5. Source: KBRA DLD Research; data as of April 10, 2026.
6,7. Source: Freddie Mac; data as of March 31, 2026.
8. Source: Realtor.com; data as of March 3, 2026.
9. Source: Realtor.com; data as of April 30, 2026.
10. Source: National Association of Homebuilders; data as of March 19, 2026.
11. Source: National Association of Realtors; data as of April 13, 2026.
12. Source: PitchBook | LCD; data as of March 31, 2026.
13. Source: Barclays Research; data as of April 9, 2026.
14. Source: BofA Global Research; data as of April 17, 2026.
15. Source: PitchBook | LCD; data as of March 31, 2026.


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Definitions

Asset-based lending (ABL) facilities are corporate loans secured by specific assets of the borrower.

Broadly syndicated loans (BSLs) are loans extended by a group of financial institutions (a loan syndicate) to a single borrower. Syndicates often include both banks and nonbank financial institutions, such as collateralized loan obligation structures, insurance companies, pension funds or mutual funds.

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are financial instruments collateralized by a pool of corporate loans.

Direct lending refers to a loan agreement negotiated between a borrower and single or small group of nonbank lenders. Direct lending can also be referred to as “private credit” or “private lending.”

Residential transitional loans (RTLs) are short-term loans to real estate developers for the purpose of renovating a residential property. The loans are secured by the property being renovated.

Structured credit is a financial instrument that pools together groups of similar, income-generating assets.

Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index (Gross/Total) is a market value-weighted index that measures the performance of the US leveraged loan market. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income. (Gross/Total) is a market value-weighted index that measures the performance of the US leveraged loan market. A total-return index tracks price changes and reinvestment of distribution income.

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