BLOGThe Bird's Eye View
Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking
We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.
BLOGThe Bird's Eye View
Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking
We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.
The most important question in credit today is not whether yield is still available—quite simply, we believe it is. The more important question is whether that yield is attached to risks investors can understand, control and are being adequately paid to own. In today’s market, that distinction matters.
On the surface, markets have remained resilient. Equity indexes have continued to find support from a narrow set of themes, most notably artificial intelligence-linked capital spending and higher-end consumer resilience. Credit spreads have retraced a meaningful portion of the February and March weakness, fund flows have improved, and primary markets have reopened selectively. Capital is still available, but it is becoming more conditional.
Meanwhile, investors still want yield, but they are less willing to forgive mistakes. As such, the task for managers is not simply to find more yield; it is to find yield with what we consider to be better architecture around it.
That view shaped how we entered the year. We reduced risk in areas where returns appeared asymmetric, particularly where underwriting standards had weakened or liquidity depended too heavily on continued refinancing availability. When volatility emerged in February and March, that prior de-risking mattered. It gave us the opportunity to return capital, preserve liquidity, and re-engage selectively where we believed the form of risk was clear.
For much of the last decade, investors were rewarded for adding exposure. Liquidity has been abundant, refinancing markets open and beta often doing more of the work than anyone was willing to admit. This year has been a reminder that credit is not one beta, but rather a collection of very different risks that share a label.
This year has been a reminder that credit is not one beta, but rather a collection of very different risks that share a label.
When markets are broad and forgiving, exposure can be enough. With markets as they are today, outcomes depend more on how risk is sourced, underwritten, documented, collateralized and controlled. By focusing on areas where credit meets structure, we believe complexity can potentially become a source of durable premium rather than a source of hidden risk.
After years of rewarding capital-light businesses, we have begun to see a shift in market leadership to businesses that control scarce, tangible assets. We believe this shift is supported by structural forces.
The first is the increasingly complicated and uncertain geopolitical landscape that has fueled the need for strategic autonomy. While the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, the energy supply shock brought on by the war has reinforced the need for strategic autonomy amid shortages in energy and other commodities like helium and fertilizers. As historical alliances are being reassessed, supply chain resilience has become a national priority for many governments, particularly for energy, mining and minerals, semiconductors and industrial capacity.
The need for strategic national autonomy has grown, supporting companies that control the scarce real assets necessary to achieve it.
The massive investment in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures has also underscored the need for infrastructure as power demand increases and bottlenecks emerge. Electrification scales not only through generation but through the grid—generation, transmission and cooling, as well as reliance on the materials and equipment used to build the infrastructure, like copper and gas turbines. As a result, the challenges are local and practical, so companies that control scarce physical capacity have pricing power.
After years of underinvestment in global infrastructure for energy and natural resources, supply is struggling to keep up with the step up in demand, resetting commodity prices structurally higher. The timeline from discovery to production for most commodities can span well over a decade, which suggests to us that supply is likely to remain constrained for several years.
These secular forces have coalesced to shift value from capital-light businesses to businesses characterized by capital- and labor-intensive production and manufacturing, where competitive advantages are rooted in physical property, not intellectual property. Importantly, we believe that mere exposure to real assets is not enough. Selectivity—with a focus on genuine scarcity value and advantageous cost position—remains vital for investors seeking access to companies with the potential for persistent earnings power and resilience.

