BLOGThe Bird's Eye View
Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking
We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.
BLOGThe Bird's Eye View
Timely Perspectives, Unconventional Thinking
We’re excited to share timely market insights, thoughtful perspectives and expert commentary as part of our commitment to providing modern investment solutions to modern challenges.
Activity in the middle market direct lending (MMDL) space during the first quarter was reminiscent of second quarter 2025, only with artificial intelligence and the war with Iran replacing tariffs as the primary headwinds to issuance.
After a record 2025, first quarter new issuance of $61 billion represented a 14% year-over-year decline. While dividend recapitalizations and refinancings were markedly lower during the quarter across deal sizes, financing to support M&A rose to its highest share of overall deal count since fourth quarter 2023. While volume in the lower middle market also slowed, its share of overall M&A activity by deal count fell to its lowest level since third quarter 2024.1
Many of 2025’s borrower-friendly trends showed signs of improvement in first quarter 2026. New-issue spreads widened across all deal sizes, with spreads for larger deals moving the most. Though spreads for lower middle market deals—borrowers whose earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and appreciation are in the $5–25 million range—widened by only two basis points, we believe sustained widening in the large cap market may likely trickle down into smaller markets over time. Meanwhile, spread per turn of leverage among lower middle market loans ended the quarter at its widest level since August 2024 and maintained an attractive premium to larger deals.2
Many of 2025’s borrower-friendly trends showed signs of improvement in first quarter 2026.
We continue to believe that direct lending in the lower middle market can provide lenders and their investors an attractive combination of yield, leverage and structure.
After falling steadily for most of the past 12 months, mortgage rates rebounded with the outbreak of the Iran war, sending the spring homebuying season off to a sluggish start. Though it slipped below 6% toward the end of February, the rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ended the quarter at 6.47%, and this uptick combined with economic uncertainty appears to have weighed on housing market activity thus far in 2026.1
Despite the short-term ebb and flow of the housing market, we believe that secular tailwinds—such as undersupply of housing in the US and the ongoing need for capital to refurbish existing homes and to develop lots for new homes—remain intact. Housing market dynamics combined with the retreat of traditional banks from construction lending, in our view, have created a supportive backdrop for nonbank providers of capital to the real estate industry. This includes capital to finance residential transitional loans (RTLs)—short-duration, value-add renovation loans—and builder financing transactions—off-balance-sheet financing provided to homebuilders for the acquisition and development of entitled and permitted land.
In our view, housing market dynamics have created a supportive backdrop for nonbank providers of capital to the real estate industry.
Notably, RTLs are backed by hard assets whose values are transparent and subject to frequent validation through the sale of similar properties, limiting the potential for an abrupt markdown by lenders. We see significant opportunity to lend capital to experienced developers that can renovate homes within existing communities with desirable characteristics like top school districts, walkability and proximity to jobs, with a focus on markets that exhibit stronger-than-average household incomes, population growth and housing supply constraints relative to the broader US—attributes that, in our view, support more resilient demand and home values. We believe this reinforces the importance of distinguishing between the national “housing market” and a more localized “market of homes.”

