Market & Topical Perspectives

Will Debt-Ceiling Drama Turn into a Debt-Ceiling Debacle?

Will Debt-Ceiling Drama Turn into a Debt-Ceiling Debacle?

Despite the US Treasury potentially being unable to pay all of its bills as soon as June 1, negotiators in Washington remain at an impasse in their discussions over raising the debt ceiling, or the total amount of debt the government is authorized by Congress to borrow.

While the path forward remains highly uncertain, the unprecedented destination of default remains a possibility and would almost certainly have disastrous consequences for markets and the economy. That said, even a last-second agreement that allows the Treasury to continue meeting its obligations—by either increasing the debt ceiling or suspending it for a few months—could have long-lasting destabilizing impacts. Further, it appears unlikely that a resolution to the debt-ceiling drama will include any meaningful and necessary fiscal reform.

As investors, we’re left to observe the political kabuki surrounding the debt-ceiling debate from the cheap seats, hoping to glean some semblance of meaning amid the finger-pointing and grandstanding and posturing. That we have grown accustomed to the political brinksmanship that seems to precede every eleventh-hour agreement averting the worst-case scenario, we must be prepared for all potential alternatives. Below, we answer a few questions in an effort to provide some insight into the current circumstances.